Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 12/20 PTM Online Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.6% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 40.8% | -5.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Accursed Strength | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revealing Mesmer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |